Thursday, February 07, 2002

Whither broadband? Microsoft will not be able to deliver applications (or experiences) that are any good over a network unless low-latency, high-bandwidth networks become widely available. And given the state of cable and DSL, that's not going to happen anytime soon. This poses a key threat to .NET service revenue taking off within the next five years, which means Microsoft will have to continue relying on costly Windows and Office XP upgrades (which just drives customers into the arms of GNU/Linux anyways).

I met the Director of supply chain from Juniper earlier today who talked about how telcos were the bread-and-butter of their core business, and how broadband was going to drive demand for their new edge-network products. Given that telcos are toast, and broadband isn't going to happen anytime soon, I'd say the company is in serious trouble from a revenue growth standpoint. The markets figured this out a while ago, stocks trading at 13.50, down from over 100 a year ago. While operationally Juniper is very advanced, I don't know strategically how they're going to get out of this position.


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