Monday, April 12, 2004

Hindsight bias

I have not followed the 9/11 Commission because I know what the answer is -- September 11th could not really be anticipated or prevented and was a wakeup call to everyone. Who did what and knew what etc. is ridiculous and boring and government as usual. Jane Galt has a very good post on hindsight bias as it related to this self-important commission, and Easterbrooke lays out what would have happen had Bush attacked Osama Bin Laden and the Taliban on September 10th (or Clinton on Sept 10th 1999). I was having dinner with some friends recently, who said they wanted someone to get fired over 9/11 because, well, it would make them feel better. This struck me as a stupid way to try and win a war.

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