This article sums up exactly 
my experiences at DE Shaw during the ruble default/LTCM melt down in 1998:
My Brazilian rate started trading. It blinked 17.40%, 1.50% wider 
than the prior day. I was out 3 million dollars, and I had no chance to 
trade. No chance to get out at 15.50% or 16.00%. The market had gapped.
The days following Lehman 
were notable not only because of the large moves, but because I, and 
many others, could never have traded at any price. Fists punched screens
 all across the globe.
It was a self-reinforcing problem. A 
feedback loop developed. I couldn’t sell my Brazilian rates so instead I
 sold another investment, Argentinian bonds. Others were doing the same,
 selling whatever they could, whatever was trading, moving the money 
into cash. The process devolved down the ladder of securities, from the 
least liquid to the most liquid. By the end, some of the largest stocks 
in the world, blue-chip stocks in the S&P 500 were also gapping.
The
 months following Lehman’s collapse saw the entire financial system 
start to fail, in a cascade of interconnected plummeting securities, and
 with them, the world economy.
Emphasis mine. The contagion has everything to do with the homogeneity of the financial investors, and nothing to do with actual market correlations between the assets.
 
No comments:
Post a Comment