Tuesday, March 12, 2002

Will GNU/Linux disrupt Sun? They key to whether a potential disruptive technology is a threat has nothing to do with how good the incumbent's technology is. It has to do with whether the disruptive technology is improving faster than the market can absorb improvements. The incumbent could have better technology and innovate more rapidly and still be disrupted by a worse, less innovative disruptor so long as it eventually catches up with the customer. Is GNU/Linux disrupting Sun on the workstation? Maybe. How about Microsoft on the desktop? How much has the Windows desktop really improved for the end user since '95? How much have KDE or GNOME improved over the last two years?


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