Wednesday, November 03, 2004

W

It looks like Bush gets his 4 more years. But there is plenty for Democrats to console themselves with:

1) It isn't a bad thing that Bush gets to finish what the begun in Iraq. Right now I think it's too early to tell whether the invasion was a good idea or a bad one, but we should know in 3-4 years. Republicans will not be able to accuse Kerry of screwing things up though by his softness on terror.

2) I beleive that the US housing market is in a bubble, and that we shall see prices fall nationally (first time ever) and fall dramatically in the most overinflated markets in the next few years. Since more wealth is tied up in housing than other markets, I also expect to see consumer and business spending contract when this happens. It will be a rough ride for any administration.

3) Taxes go up and down like yo-yo's, while spending seems to remain fixed and unalterable. If you don't like Bush's tax cuts you will have every opportunity to hike them up again. The tax code seems to be every party's favorite playpen.

4) We are now assured not-Bush in '08. Whatever animosity he's gathered personally will be purged then and we can all get back to the "life-as-normal" existance that Kerry and the Economist offered. Getting "back-to-normal" after 6.5 years of the boot may be better than after 2.5 years. The international community isn't going anywhere, and with the (maybe) exception of Arab nations, we'll see a new set of faces in '08. Time enough for a fresh start then.

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