Monday, March 18, 2002

Not the end of the world Nice article here by Andrew Bowie pointing out that the music industry is not collapsing, and the movie biz is positively radiant. Journalists like claiming the music industry is vanishing because it makes good copy, and the recording cartel harps on about so they can push through draconian legislation. In reality, an artistic dry spell after four years of bumper crops means CD sales are down, while online movie copying is so horribly hardly anyone bothers (and if the cartel released DVDs along with movies, even fewer would).

Similarly, broadband is another phenomenon industry pundits (including yours truly) pooh pooh as growing at a snails pace. But in 2001, broadband grew 90% while dial-up growth was virtually stagnant. So when any company claims broadband is not happening, look for legislative intent. If any pundit claims it, look for cluelessness. But please note "broadband" is defined as at least 300kbps both ways, which is about an order of magnitude lower than what movies require across the internet. So no video on demand or "convergence", just broadband (which is the same as the dial-up internet except less irritating).


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